The epic failure of the California Republican Party continues to unfold.
Looking ahead to 2021, it’s unlikely that the redistricting commission will make big changes in the 2011 maps, simply because California hasn’t been changing very much.
Population growth has been relatively mild, less than 1 percent a year, and only slightly higher than growth in the nation as a whole. California would be fortunate not to lose one of its 53 congressional seats to faster-growing states such as Texas.
The state’s inland areas, such as the Central Valley and Southern California’s “Inland Empire” are growing faster than coastal communities, so there’s likely to be some shift of legislative and congressional seats eastward.
Revised maps probably will mean more legislative seats for Latinos who are now the state’s largest ethnic group. Thus, Democrats will likely gain as well, because of a continued Republican voter registration decline, and make their two-thirds “supermajorities” in both legislative houses permanent.